Geek ChartsThe Rent Line
American rent versus American home prices, both set to 100 in 1970. One of these lines has dipped eight times in 56 years. The other has never gone down. Not once.
| Year | Rent index | Home index | Rent YoY | Home YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 100 | 100 | n/a | n/a |
| 1971 | 104.5 | 105.4 | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| 1972 | 108.2 | 112.9 | 3.5% | 7.0% |
| 1973 | 112.9 | 131.7 | 4.4% | 16.7% |
| 1974 | 118.5 | 145.3 | 5.0% | 10.3% |
| 1975 | 124.7 | 159.6 | 5.3% | 9.8% |
| 1976 | 131.4 | 180.3 | 5.3% | 13.0% |
| 1977 | 139.4 | 203.9 | 6.1% | 13.1% |
| 1978 | 149 | 235.3 | 6.9% | 15.4% |
| 1979 | 159.8 | 269.8 | 7.2% | 14.7% |
| 1980 | 174 | 286.6 | 8.9% | 6.2% |
| 1981 | 189 | 312.1 | 8.7% | 8.9% |
| 1982 | 203.4 | 314.6 | 7.6% | 0.8% |
| 1983 | 215.3 | 336.9 | 5.8% | 7.1% |
| 1984 | 226.5 | 366 | 5.2% | 8.7% |
| 1985 | 240.4 | 378.3 | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| 1986 | 254.4 | 420.5 | 5.8% | 11.2% |
| 1987 | 264.7 | 478.7 | 4.1% | 13.8% |
| 1988 | 274.8 | 520.3 | 3.8% | 8.7% |
| 1989 | 285.6 | 555.8 | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| 1990 | 297.6 | 559.4 | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| 1991 | 308.2 | 552.6 | 3.5% | -1.2% |
| 1992 | 315.9 | 542.9 | 2.5% | -1.8% |
| 1993 | 323.2 | 553.4 | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| 1994 | 331.2 | 578.5 | 2.5% | 4.5% |
| 1995 | 339.4 | 591.9 | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 1996 | 348.4 | 621.1 | 2.7% | 4.9% |
| 1997 | 358.5 | 656.2 | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| 1998 | 370.1 | 679.7 | 3.2% | 3.6% |
| 1999 | 381.7 | 730.5 | 3.1% | 7.5% |
| 2000 | 395.5 | 770.6 | 3.6% | 5.5% |
| 2001 | 413.1 | 791.9 | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| 2002 | 429.5 | 850.7 | 4.0% | 7.4% |
| 2003 | 441.9 | 917.6 | 2.9% | 7.9% |
| 2004 | 453.8 | 1021.1 | 2.7% | 11.3% |
| 2005 | 467.3 | 1093 | 3.0% | 7.0% |
| 2006 | 484.1 | 1140.3 | 3.6% | 4.3% |
| 2007 | 504.7 | 1162.5 | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| 2008 | 523.2 | 1084.7 | 3.7% | -6.7% |
| 2009 | 535.1 | 1010.7 | 2.3% | -6.8% |
| 2010 | 536.3 | 1020.7 | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 2011 | 545.4 | 992.9 | 1.7% | -2.7% |
| 2012 | 560 | 1081.5 | 2.7% | 8.9% |
| 2013 | 575.7 | 1206.9 | 2.8% | 11.6% |
| 2014 | 594 | 1296.2 | 3.2% | 7.4% |
| 2015 | 615.1 | 1315 | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 2016 | 638.3 | 1349.5 | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| 2017 | 662.6 | 1430.2 | 3.8% | 6.0% |
| 2018 | 686.7 | 1435.2 | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| 2019 | 712 | 1425.4 | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| 2020 | 734.4 | 1455.5 | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| 2021 | 750.8 | 1698.6 | 2.2% | 16.7% |
| 2022 | 796.1 | 1937.8 | 6.0% | 14.1% |
| 2023 | 859.4 | 1902.9 | 7.9% | -1.8% |
| 2024 | 903.4 | 1905.7 | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| 2025 | 935.3 | 1950.1 | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| 2026 | 954 | 1931 | 2.0% | -1.0% |
The red line is the point of this chart. In 56 years of data it has declined exactly zero times. Its worst year was 2010, the bottom of the deepest housing crash in modern history, when home prices had fallen for years running. Rent still rose 0.2%. Home prices dipped in 1991, 1992, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2019, 2023, and early 2026. Rent went up through every single one. Hover any year: the home column shows negative numbers here and there; the rent column never does.
What this means for you
Every renter is fully exposed to the red line, and the red line only moves one direction. There is no crash to wait for, no dip to time, no version of history where the rent bill got smaller. Renting is not the safe option. It is a permanent long position in the one housing cost that has never fallen. The question is not whether you pay a housing payment for life. It is whether that payment is frozen or floating.
A 30-year fixed payment does something no lease renewal ever has. The principal and interest freeze on day one and stay frozen for three decades, while the red line keeps climbing past it. Taxes and insurance still move, but the core payment does not. That is the quiet superpower of owning: not appreciation, not tax breaks, just stepping off a line that only goes up. And one day the payment ends. Rent never does.
Send this to the client who says renting is safer while they wait. Waiting has a price, and this chart is the price tag. Rent compounds against them every year they stand still, and it has compounded through every recession, crash, and pandemic since 1970. The financing conversation is about capping their largest monthly cost, and the numbers side of that conversation is handled from here.
How to read this honestly. Home prices grew faster than rent over this stretch (19.3x versus 9.5x), so this chart is not claiming renting costs more than owning in every market or every year. It is making a narrower, harder point: rent has no down years. A homeowner's price risk shows up eight times on this chart; a renter's cost has never once moved in their favor. National averages, not any one market. Education, not advice for any individual situation.
Related chart: The Mortgage Payment Burden.
Sources: Rent is BLS CPI for All Urban Consumers, Rent of Primary Residence, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (FRED: CUUR0000SEHA), annual averages of monthly data; the October 2025 reading was not published due to the federal appropriations lapse, so 2025 averages eleven months, and 2026 averages January through May. Home prices are the Census and HUD average sales price of houses sold (ASPUS), annual averages of quarterly data; 2026 uses the Q1 2026 reading ($514,600). Both series are indexed to 1970 = 100; linear scale from zero.